There Is No Plan

Liberation Square is actually becoming an open air prison to contain ideas.

Tahrir Square is starting to turn into a city within a city. It has its own pharmacist, food and power supplies, and makeshift police forces drawn from protestors. The military oversee entrance into the square, politely frisking protestors and sending them on their way to merrily pray and sing their hearts out.  Slowly but surely, the military will choke the life out of the rebellion, killing it with kindness rather than water cannon.

All this is rapidly becoming almost laughably ironic.

Instead of taking the revolution on the road and fomenting pressure for change in Alexandria and  other poor as all get out delta cities, it has been voluntarily contained. The pitched battles in Suez and other cities seem to be over. The police have gone underground again, and world journalists are now conveniently camped out in Tahrir, where they’re surrounded by the military.

Meanwhile, the US has signaled it supports a Suleiman-led ‘transition’ government, which means – as predicted – the military is asserting its authority and Mubarak will get to pass the mantle, painlessly, to the Army, which is banking the worldwide hashtag creators will move on to the next story during that ‘transition’. Read the rest of this entry »

Are you sure you people want to do this democracy thing?

Let’s have some fun.

Time to look at the prognosis for the major characters…

Hos Mubarak;

the embattled President and friend to the West, currently looking for cheap tickets out of Cairo on a variety of Internet travel sites. He’s said he won’t run for “re-election” in September, but the street wants him gone now. Cue power vacuum.

The Army:

Never looked better. Despite the fact that they’ve never won a single battle of any note, their F-16s, M-1 Tanks and new uniforms sure are shiny. And get this, all the protesters love them. With Mubarak on his way out, and the Army elevated to cabinet power by the old man, it’s no surprise that they’ve pre-emptively said they won’t fire on the demonstrators if Mubarak as a last ditch effort to stay in power should ask them. That pretty much seals it for old Hos. With the toys and the status, the Army has everything to lose from the “Arab Revolutionary Spirit” in Tahrir Square. What they’re looking for is something akin to the power enjoyed by the Turkish Army during and after Attaturk. Are they going to get it? Not without a fight. What they’re not looking for is a resumption of hostilities, cold or otherwise, with Israel. That would spell the end of the gravy from the US, which would not take kindly to the unwholesome possibility of US weaponry being used against the Jewish state. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s nothing the social media and tech mavens like doing more than talking up social media and its influence.

In Iran, that influence turned out to be overplayed, and the ‘Green Revolution’ fizzled out. But in Tunisia and Egypt, it seems like it did indeed play a major organizational role, at least in catalyzing the original clashes. The Iranian police state proved itself much more adept at manipulating social media for its own ends. Plus it had the added advantage of dealing with a rebellion that was bourgeois in origin. The Egyptian riots seem to have a far wider social base, which may prove to be crucial. It’s interesting to note that in both Tunisia and Egypt, satellite cities away from the capital played a big role in fomenting the rebellion.

But regardless of the social pattern, it’s clear to Thereisnoplan that the internet is a crucial part of the equation in Egypt, which explains why it was cut off. Washington has been watching closely, but I’m guessing that Beijing has been taking note too.

China has overheated its economy pretty nicely. A real estate bubble, a more educated, and connected population with vastly increased expectations, inflation levels near the tipping point, and a depressed international consumer economy are adding real pressure for political change. And while China’s conciliatory approach to human rights and democratic change is probably just talk, unlike their distaste for the current Nobel Peace Prize recipient – they’re getting closer and closer to a time when concrete decisions will have to be made. Read the rest of this entry »

See you around, Hos.

Before we get carried away with the birth of democracy in Egypt, let’s ask ourselves why the United States has been plying the Mubarak regime with a couple of billion dollars worth of play money for the last God knows how long. Was it because he was such a great guy doing right by his peeps? Uhh, no. Could it have been because we needed him to keep the lid on the Muslim Brotherhood, that’s been threatening to give the West indigestion for the last eighty years? Way more likely.

So where exactly have the Muslim Brotherhood been during the riots in Cairo and other cities around the Nile Delta? Not in huge evidence that’s for sure. And that’s what worries Thereisnoplan. You see, it would seem like a smart move for the Brotherhood to stay on the sidelines. After all, if they were seen as stirring the pot, the US and others might be a little less likely to be pushing the Democratic agenda for Egypt, just in case Cairo went the way of Gaza after its Democratic experiment and ended up in the hands of the Islamists. It may be a genuine secular revolt, but – and this is just a wild guess – Thereisnoplan is betting that much of President Obama’s trip to the White House basement (otherwise known as the Situation Room) was spent chatting about just that eventuality. Read the rest of this entry »

Captain Sensible gave a cracking performance out there tonight.

Every crafted word was about as rational and considered as it can be, threading the needle, professionally, professorially, as usual. The GOP and Tea Party responses, by contrast, came from the other side of the sanity spectrum, somewhere between total delusion, and crushing ignorance.

And yet, it’s the GOP in all its lies, puffery and vanity that scored big in the Mid-term elections last November. The Klingon forces of darkness zapped President Spock and his army of sane and sensible Democrats but good. Usually the good guy wins, but the rules were thoroughly shattered last time out.

All the wonks, from top to bottom tell us that the Obama Administration had got it right. The stimulus package put a million-plus to work, health care reform will cut the deficit, and the economy is growing at a good clip. So what gives? Why are people were so ungrateful?

The answer is simple.
Read the rest of this entry »

After a short, and barely respectable lull in their nasty ‘rhetoric’, the GOP is once more gearing up to repeal Obama’s Healthcare overhaul in the House.

Nobody seems to notice that the Senate spent a year watering the current law down to weak tea, but still has a Democratic majority, and that sitting in the White House is a President who called Health Care reform a landmark piece of legislation.

I think it’s a fair bet to suggest that whatever lunatic scrawl the House pass is going to be regarded with nothing less than utter disdain by the Senate and President.

In short, the whole Repeal Health Care shenanigan is a total waste of time. Talk about the bridge to nowhere. This is the fart to nowhere. Read the rest of this entry »

India should be our bestest friend

Okay, so maybe it wasn’t the move of the century to ditch our wounded republic for a far flung developing nation that’s trying to put us away. And maybe the idea of going to India to jinny up jobs for America seems a bit of an “uhh?” to use a technical term, considering they’re outsource central, but this apparently dry-as-a-bone trade visit could have been made just a little more exciting with just a tad more thought.

India has long regarded the US as it’s natural trading (and not just outsourcing ally). After all, we speak the same language, well most of the people who we’d want to do business with anyway, and we’re both democracies, even if India has a far larger ‘demos’ to deal with.

Now of course, India would say all that wouldn’t they.  They want our business and they really hate the Chinese our go-to cheap labor source, with whom there’s been a simmering cold war for a very long time. Read the rest of this entry »

Fire Geithner, Fire Bernanke, Fire that Assistant Under Secretary in the Wot-not department!

Yes, it’s the season of the Political Pinkslip.

And I’ve got a new Pink Slip all printed up.

Someone call Axelrod and get him over to Human Resources, pronto.

Cut to his exit interview. We join it mid-way in.

————————————-

HUMAN RESOURCES

David, what were you thinking? I mean you totally dropped the ball.

DAVID (sniffing, he was crying earlier)

Barack shares a ton of the blame for this, but we thought, you know that bi-partisanship would be popular with the people. You know they’re always saying how they want us to ‘work together to solve America’s problems’.

HUMAN RESOURCES

And you believed them.

DAVID

We’re not supposed to listen? You can’t blame me for listening. Jeez.

HUMAN RESOURCES

Dave, there was a massive populist tsunami on the horizon and you missed it. The people are confused. They just want an enemy. You know, someone to blame. And you guys didn’t point the finger. That’s the reason we’re letting you go.

DAVID

Oh, and who’s the enemy we missed?

HUMAN RESOURCES

Wall Street. The people got stiffed. In 2009 Unemployment skyrocketed, and so did the Dow. Bonuses, bailouts, sweetheart deals with AIG. You name it. That GOP pretty boy tapped into the independents in Massachusetts and exploited their anger, and you lost your super majority.

DAVID

One word. Coakley.

HUMAN RESOURCES

Granted she was a poor candidate, and you should have done something about that. You got complacent. You thought she was a shoo-in.

DAVID

Great, I’m being fired for thinking we’d win Massachusetts.

HUMAN RESOURCES

No you’re being fired for taking chances at a critical time. If the President you put to work in the last week, at the State of the Union, and in that GOP meeting had been working the line for the last nine months pounding Wall Street, Coakley could have ridden his coattails. It might have been close, but you didn’t nationalize that campaign. You let local personalities define the difference between getting the Senate healthcare bill through and losing it.

DAVID

Can we talk about my severance package?

HUMAN RESOURCES

And one more thing. Your boss made a big deal about not getting it right on healthcare, not listening, not getting in front of it. But that’s your fault. The guy listens to you. Why weren’t you getting him on the road earlier, fronting for this thing?

DAVID

Like that would’ve worked.

HUMAN RESOURCES

It might have if you’d sent your guy to healthcare town halls in Connecticut and Nebraska. He made the GOP house caucus look like third graders yesterday. You’re saying that charming the people, firing back at the hecklers, and being a real stand-up guy wouldn’t have influenced Lieberman and Nelson. This President is tailor-made for the bully pulpit, and you didn’t sic him onto the bad guys until it was too late.

DAVID

If he’s such a smart guy why didn’t he figure it out.

HUMAN RESOURCES

Ever heard the term “surplus to requirements”?  Enjoy your flight back to Chicago.

In the old days, policy used to have at least some potential to become reality, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that in America at least, those days are over. Nothing anybody seems to suggest from the President on downwards seems to mean a hill of beans anymore. It’s as if the country is set on a course for planet “slow decline into mediocrity” (or worse) and there’s not a damn thing anyone can do about it. All this despite some soaring rhetoric from the President, and plenty of hot air from just about everyone else.

Here’s a rundown of the current bullshitian landscape.

Jobs.

Anyone who thinks a $30-40bn Jobs bill is going to pass without being watered down to meaninglessness is dreaming. And it’s not certain why it will fare any better than the $800bn dollar stimulus package which was supposed to rebuild the economy and create, yes, that’s right. Jobs. The problems that the US economy is facing are profound and structural. Just throwing money at the problem without deep and lasting changes to – industrial, fiscal, and budgetary policy – sorry about the ‘P word’ again – needs to rethink very, very quickly. We don’t make stuff here. Some people suggest that manufacturing in the US isn’t “cost effective”, but my question is this. Why is it cost-effective in Germany?

Any-way, moving on to…

Wall Street

The President talks a great game about beating up onWall Street, especially now he’s been sobered up to the problem by the Massachusetts debacle. But it’s a tad too late. In January of 2009 the banks were still sinking in the quicksand. That’s the time to make them an offer they can’t refuse. After we’ve pulled them out, and they’ve put on fresh $500 shirts is not the time to be making a deal with them. And yet this is what we did. We had our boot on their necks and we blew our chance to make the single most destructive force in this country pay. And now, in the cold light of day, is anyone in the 41 strong Republican Senate caucus going to vote for meaningful financial reform? Uhh, Nope. Will Wall Street be constrained from ruining the nation again? Nope.

Healthcare

What was once a burning need is now a footnote that’s about to be buried ahead of the mid term elections. The Democrats thought that Healthcare reform was a winner, but after being thoroughly outmaneuvered by GOP demagoguery that idea is now going the way of another smart idea…

Stopping Global Warming.

Let’s get this straight. The world is waiting for America to get its act together on controlling greenhouse gases. But is 41 strong Republican Senate caucus going to vote fr meaningful climate legislation? Uhh, Nope. It will die.

Education

Ah, what’s the point. Nobody cares.

Finally, on domestic policy, my personal favorite…

High Speed Trains

California just got $2bn dollars of Federal Stimulus funding to build a high speed train network. Sounds great, right? Except for the fact that the total bill (and that’s before the usual corruption, incompetence, delays and overruns) is $42 billion. Chances of this happening in a state with a perennial budget crisis? Nil.

Moving abroad now…

Iraq

At a certain point in time, the United States is going to have to face the rather unpleasant moment when our last grunt gets on the last transport plane out of Baghdad Airport. Cue the bombs. Cue the resurgence of the insurgents and the reemergence of the Mahdi Army. Hello, reality.

Afghanistan

One day conference in London. Karzai tells us he’s going to end corruption and undo a millennia’s worth of being a basketcase that’s swallowed up empires, as well as buying off the Taliban recruits without guaranteeing their protection. He’s got 18 months before the troops we’re about to land there ship out. You do the math.

Iran

Sanctions work. And if you believe that, you think Sarah Palin is a closet liberal. Will the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009 be able to justify NOT attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities? Unlikely.

Haiti

Will the outpouring of aid from Americans be matched by a long-term commitment to fix Haiti? Watch the BS flow. Ain’t nothing gonna change in Haiti.

So you see, on just about every front, there’s an awful lot of talk about how we’re going to fix things.

And then there’s reality.

Welcome to the Bullshit Era.

Make some travel plans, Mr. Obama

People are mad as hell and they’re not going to take it anymore.

Which is about as close to coherence as the populist groundswell is likely to get. The President’s failure to get ahead of the tidal wave has really hurt him. His Spock-like reasonableness has not served him well. His soaring rhetoric is falling on deaf ears. Worse still, after the debacle in Massachusetts, tomorrow’s State of the Union address and the administration’s worrying signs of rightward retrenchment are unlikely to improve the President’s standing.

There are a ton of bold solutions out there in opinion-land. Many of them make great sense, but as our politics rushes headlong into an ephemeral haze, symbolism might be as – if not more – important than substance.

My interest is in stopping the rot that seems to be invading the psyche of this young adminsistration, which seems like a hot-shot rookie that’s just hit his first batting slump and just can’t seem to find a way out.

To continue the baseball metaphor, it’s often ideas out of left field that end the slump. A bunt single that you leg out, a goattee grown or shaved, the blessing of your favorite bat by your favorite zen master.

So in the spirit of strange, I suggest the President give the following a shot.

Mothball the White House. What? I hear you say. Yup. Leave it behind, and go on a “Main Street” road trip. Run your office out of Air Force One as you tour the country for six months. Go to the diners, gas stations and big box stores. Talk to the people, and hear what life’s really like in this recession. Find out what they want, ask their advice, and conduct the people’s business on the road.

What would this “Main Street Tour” achieve? A huge amount. It would put the President back in campaign mode where he’s at his best. It would represent the ‘change’ in the way politics is done. It would enable a dispassionate president to find his passion and connect with the people. And it would enable him to recapture some of the populist wind that’s been owned – absurdly – by Scott Brown and his truck, “Independent Conservatives”, the rest of GOP and of course Tea Party Loons.

And what’s the message that he’s got to take along with him? Tax incentives to create jobs. Oh, and sticking it Wall Street with regulation that will protect America from any future rapaciousness by the “fat cats”.